söndag, juni 14, 2009

En annan teori som cirkulerar...

Till NIACs blogg skriver filmmakaren Mohsen Makhmalbaf så här om anledningen till att Ahmadinejad vann valet...

According to Mohsen Makhmalbaf, renowned Iranian filmmaker, Ahmadinejad is an skilled actor and is a master of demagoguery. I believe he won because of the following reasons:

  1. He pretends to be on low income people’s side determined to introduce the factors of corruption and powerful characters such as Hashemi Rafsanjani and Nategh Nouri to people just like he mentioned them in the media [during his campaign].
  2. In recent months and just before the elections, Ahmadinejad raised the salaries of many retired people and academics. It’s interesting that he doubled low salaries so he can attract the low-income individuals even though we have such a high inflation.
  3. Last year, he introduced to the Majlis an economic plan to get rid of subsides and give the earnings to the low-income people and those under the poverty line. This plan has not been approved yet but it is very interesting to the people in lower income classes.
  4. Even though he gave false and phony data about inflation, unemployment, and economic growth, it did not make any difference for two reasons: first is ignorance of the masses to indicators and second is inability of his competitors to assert themselves. In the presidential debates, Ahmadinejad would question the character of his competitors instead of answering the questions. For example, he accused Karoubi of receiving 300 million toman (~$300,000) from someone who is now in prison. He also accused Mrs. Mousavi of forging her degrees. In general, he was very aggressive in the debates and would put his competitors in a defensive mode.
  5. Ahmadinejad made an advertising movie of himself and his family which was very effective among the masses. His simple life is similar to low income people. This is despite the fact that during his first term some people acquired a lot of wealth because of Ahmadinejad’s bad economic decisions, housing prices during the last four years tripled, industrial production decreased, many factories closed and unemployment increased. Import of goods such as rice, tea, sugar, and Chinese goods mostly helped the importers who are Ahmadinejad’s biggest supporters. It’s interesting that several of his ministers are very wealthy including his mister of the interior.
  6. An increase in the price of oil and a $280 billion revenue allowed Ahmadinejad to not only raise people’s salaries but also to give cash, goods and even gold coins to the people who came to greet him whenever he visited a town or a village; just like the Qajar kings. Many of the agencies under the supervision of the supreme leader helped him in this matter.
  7. The armed forces, specially the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij are Ahmadinejad’s supporters. Their penetration in the villages and small towns, and the fact that they are often from the lower income classes, played a major role in Ahmadinejad’s victory like the previous elections.
  8. Regarding foreign policy, Ahmadinejad acts as if his diplomacy on the nuclear energy has been very successful by forcing the United States and others to accept Iran’s enrichment program and making Iranians proud. On foreign policy issues, his competitors only criticized him for isolating Iran and creating enemies.

The election results show that many analysts who thought a 60 percent participation would lead to Ahmadinejad’s loss were wrong. Official data and anecdotal evidence show Ahmadinejad was mainly popular in small towns, rural areas and among the low income people. His opposition came from large cities and especially Tehran.

Historicallly, those who surf on the waves created by deluding the masses use the same methods. Hitler was something of a demagogue before coming to power. Chavez in Venezuela is the same. Unfortunately, uneducated and ignorant masses become the main supporters of dictatorships. Regarding Iranians, superstitious and religious beliefs has added to this cause like Ahmadinejad’s supporters who believe his government is approved by the absent Imam. Now that he has won, he may well claim similar things in the future.

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