Why Iran's Mullahs Are Feeling Lucky

Domestically, Khameini appears to realize that the challenge of the reform movement headed by current President Mohmammed Khatami has long since run out of steam. Foiled at every turn by the overriding authority of conservative clerics within the state but unable or unwilling to mount a people-power challenge to clerical authority, Khatami's movement has lost much of its ability to convince Iran's voters of its ability to secure change. Khameini appears to see little to fear — and much to gain — in allowing the lead reformist candidate Moein to run for president.

Reformers thwarted

With the reformists sidelined, the more important political cleavage now is between hardliners and pragmatists within conservative ranks. Khameini is said to disapprove of the policies of leading pragmatist candidate Hashemi Rafsanjani, the former speaker of parliament who might have drawn "lesser-evil" backing from reformist voters if they lacked a candidate of their own. Allowing the reformists to run potentially splits Rafsanjani's vote, improving the chances of hard-liners. Even if the reformers win, the Khatami years have proven that the clerical bodies controlled by the conservatives trump the power of the presidency. The Supreme Leader is also concerned to maintain a modicum of popular consent for Iran's institutions.


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