Khamenei is losing control or just cleaver?

Of 1010 registered candidates the “Guardian Council” only approved six for the presidential elections. All the candidates in the reform camp were banned from running in the elections. The news has been criticized from the reform camp who has threatened to boycott the elections. During last years parliamentary elections over 2 000 reformists were barred from the elections which lead to a record low voter turnout.

The candidates which the Guardian Council approved were the former president Rafsanjani, the former police chief Mohammad Ghalibaf, former radio and television chief Ali Larijani, Teheran Mayo Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, former head of the revolutionary guards Mohsen Rezai and the former parliamentary speaker Mahdi Karroubi.

The council is appointed and has close ties to the “supreme leader” Khamenei. The council also barred women from running in the elections.

The former culture minister Mostafa Moin was the reform camps strongest candidate and the only candidate of Iran’s largest reform party, the Islamic Iran Participation Front (IIPF). Moin said today that he had nothing to say to the Guardian Council and that he would take his case directly to the people, saying that the people should measure the councils act as a coup or not.

Barring Moin from the elections would mean a lower voter turnout among the young people of Iran, where the conservatives have little support; around 70 % of the Iranian people are under the age of 30.

Moin was also the only candidate who wanted to continue the suspension of all uranium enrichment activities by Iran and to reach a political compromise with the EU.

Two theories

One theory could is that the “supreme Leader” Khamenei seems to be loosing his total control over the conservative camp. He has failed to gather the conservatives around his favourite candidate Larijani, and he now seems to be afraid of the ramifications of the guardian council’s decision to reject Moins candidacy. Today Khamenei wrote a letter to the Guardian Council urging the council to reconsider Moins candidacy, and allow him to run in the elections.

If Moin is not approved by the council and the IIPF decides to boycott the elections the voter turnout will probably be very low. A fact that seems to scare Khamenei, but not the Guardian Council who are willing to risk a low voter turnout, international and national criticism of unfair and illegitimate elections for the purpose of weakening the reform camp.

Another theory is that Khameneis move was an elaborated one. By acting as he was unaware of the Guardian Councils move to stop Moins candidacy he is clearing himself from all responsibility and can move on looking like the good guy. The Guardian Council who is appointed by Khamenei and close to him would probably never approve or disapprove a huge candidate as Moin without the “supreme leaders” knowledge and approval.

This way Khamenei gets what he wants, a chance to gain total control of Iran by increasing his favourite candidate’s chance of winning the elections, and also severely damaging the reformist camp. And during this process Khamenei will come out looking like the good guy who did his best for convincing the Guardian Council to approve Moin as a candidate and save the reform camp.