Telegraph: Hands up if you've lost the plot

First, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad alienated the rest of the world with his religious extremism, nuclear ambitions and global grandstanding. Now, due to domestic failures and economic incompetence, he is doing the same to ordinary Iranians Imagine you are the president of Iran. You awake to discover that a US nuclear-powered aircraft carrier is heading in your direction, as is a new anti-missile defence system to protect your neighbours from the missiles you plan to point at them. A bad week? Not really, because you have just taken delivery of a new missile system of your own. You have Iraq in the palm of your hand and you have just returned from a nice jaunt to South America, where you made new friends who share your loathing of the Great Satan. You are ready to bask in the warm glow of admiration. And then you discover that the price of tomatoes has trebled in a month and your supporters have deserted you. Had Mahmoud Ahmadinejad spent less time goading the Americans, and more time studying their democratic process, he might have picked up the lesson that George W Bush's father learnt the hard way from Bill Clinton in 1992: "It's the economy, stupid." Ahmadinejad came to power in 2005 promising to use oil money to cut the gap between rich and poor. If he has succeeded, it is only because both groups are now struggling to make ends meet. Had he nailed the economics, his critics might have had more stomach for his political grandstanding and nuclear brinkmanship. Instead, while the Iranians are at the Americans' throats throughout the region, internal inflation and unemployment are running at 30 per cent and rents and property prices are 40 per cent higher than six months ago. Even former supporters are questioning whether turning the entire United Nations Security Council against Iran was a bright idea. Last week, 150 parliamentarians — just over half of Iran's 290 MPs — took the extraordinary step of signing a letter blaming Ahmadinejad for the country's woes and accusing him of planning to squander the country's oil earnings, which account for about 80 per cent of its revenues, in next year's budget. "The government's efforts must be focused on decreasing spending and cutting its dependence on oil revenues," the MPs wrote. It was a sure sign that what limited backing Ahmadinejad had from Iran's supreme leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had evaporated. The hard-line conservative newspaper Jomhouri Islami, a reliable indicator of Khamenei's thinking, spelled it out. "Speak about the nuclear issue only during important national occasions, stop provoking aggressor powers like the United States and concentrate more on the daily needs of the people," it wrote. The warning signs were already there. Last month, the former president, Hashemi Rafsanjani, a wily opponent of the current incumbent, came out on top in elections to the council of experts, the body responsible for choosing Iran's supreme leader. And while Ahmadinejad's sister, Parvin, picked up a seat in local elections, other supporters of the president were routed, securing just 20 per cent of the votes. The elections were regarded as a referendum on the president's first 18 months in power. Iranian economists say that Ahmadinejad's domestic problems stem from his devotion to the khodkafai economic model of Iranian self-sufficiency, rather than the alternative Chinese model — favoured by Rafsanjani — which embraces markets and international trade. "He believes the economy should be subservient to his political aims," said Amir Taheri, a prominent Iranian-born journalist and author. "He believes international trade is a bad thing because it will pollute our economy and culture." Ahmadinejad is an ascetic. He lives in a small house, drives an old car and does not bother with such fripperies as a dishwasher. When elected mayor of Tehran he ordered the removal of advertising hoardings featuring David Beckham and George Clooney. He believes Iranians should be frugal and reduce their dependence on the outside world. And the middle class hates him for it. "He is going for self-sufficiency and this has created inflationary tendencies, and the fear of war has led to the freezing of business activity," Taheri said. Money has flooded out of the country as those with spare cash invest it in property hotspots around the Arab world. Ayatollah Shahroudi, Iran's judiciary chief, has estimated that over $700 million have left the economy and gone overseas in recent months. As many as 1,000 educated people are leaving the country every day. "But Ahmadinejad doesn't care," said Taheri. "He regards it as purification, dirty capital leaving. Ahmadinejad would rather people lived like him. He says we are not in this world to have a good time, we are here to serve God, to fulfil a mission. This has angered the fun-loving middle classes, but resonates with the so-called dispossessed." But even the poor are now feeling the pinch. "People are really under pressure," said Tehran housewife Maryam Hatamkhani. "We are unhappy. Instead of bringing welfare, this government has given us hardship." Undeterred, Ahmadinejad is planning to introduce petrol rationing at the start of the new Iranian year, in late March. Motorists will be allowed just 100 litres per car, per month, at the existing price of 800 rials (4p), but anything above that will be charged at 5000 rials (27p) a litre. Petrol pumps have had to be changed, at huge expense, to read the new petrol cards which will be used to enforce the rationing, but which few people have yet received. The fuel price rises are the result of the president's attempt to cut dependency on foreign imports. Although Iran is OPEC's second largest producer of oil, it is forced to import 40 per cent of its refined petroleum needs because its own refining facilities were devastated during the war with Iraq. Businessmen interviewed by The Sunday Telegraph in Tehran, last week, were already wincing at the knock-on effects of the price rise. "This will multiply all other costs, such as taxi fares, transportation and food, because it is a chain reaction," one warned. Political opponents argue that much of the backing for Ahmadinejad in the first place came not from ordinary voters but from the paramilitary Basij organisation. The Basij, part of the revolutionary guard, was established by Ayatollah Khomeini in 1979 and its sacrifice in the war with Iraq won it a place in the hearts of many Iranians. Ahmadinejad, who often wears a black-and-white Basiji scarf, is happy to play on that association, but the Basiji has also been used to put down unrest and to enforce religious law. "He never actually enjoyed any support from the average Iranians," one opponent said. "People did not want him in the first place. Basijis voted for him not because they thought he was any better than the others, but just because Khamenei had indirectly suggested the Basiji should vote for Ahmadinejad. "A lot of people from the very lowest class of population were promised a better life if he was elected. But after a year or so in the office, he has clearly shown that he was not able to deliver most of his promises and this resulted in the loss of the backing of many of the Basijis, too." It is not only his handling of the economy that has eaten away at Ahmadinejad's support base. The nuclear stand-off should have appealed to Iranian chauvinism, but critics say it has been bungled and that Ahmadinejad's clumsy calls for Israel to be wiped off the map, as well as his questioning of the Nazi holocaust, have led to Iran being shunned by nations with which it might otherwise have expected to find common cause. They blame the failure of Iranian diplomacy on the president's removal of experienced diplomats from his foreign office, two years ago, and their replacement with his allies from the revolutionary guard. This failure was demonstrated most clearly by the Security Council's decision, last month, to impose sanctions on Iran for refusing to halt uranium enrichment. "That all 15 members of the Security Council unanimously voted [against Iran] shows the weakness of our diplomatic apparatus," said MP Noureddin Pirmoazzen. Jomhouri Islami complained in an editorial that Ahmadinejad was simply antagonising the rest of the international community. "That Your Excellency talks about nuclear energy in all cities and in all your speeches doesn't seem to be a correct publicity strategy … Your language is offensive and contains unpleasant words that suggest the nuclear issue is being dealt with stubbornly," it wrote. Iraj Jamshidi, a political analyst, said Ahmadinejad's tactics had backfired. "Ahmadinejad made two major claims in his presidential campaign: to bring oil revenues to the kitchen of every Iranian family and to protect Iran's nuclear achievements. He failed in both," he said. The president's whistle-stop tour of South America, last week, won him some new friends among America's opponents in the region — presidents Hugo Chavez, of Venezuela, Daniel Ortega, of Nicaragua, and Rafael Correa, of Ecuador — but his opponents question their value. "Does he really think people like Chavez, Correa and Ortega can be Iran's strategic allies?" the reformist daily newspaper Etemad Melli demanded. "These left-wing friends are good for coffee shop discussions, but not to determine our security, or political and economic priorities." For all Ahmadinejad's posturing, he has few international allies. North Korea and Zimbabwe remain loyal, but even Russia and China turned against him in the Security Council vote. Closer to home, Syria is Iran's only friend in the Arab world. "Mr Ahmadinejad's attempt to win acceptance for Iran's leadership by being more Arab than the Arabs … has totally failed," said Edward Luttwak, an expert on strategic affairs. "Sunnis were supposed to forget that Iran is Shia, and non-Arab. Instead, "death to Persia" is the new slogan." As tensions in the region increase, America last week dispatched a second aircraft carrier, the nuclear-powered USS John C. Stennis, to the Gulf, along with a Patriot anti-missile battalion, "to dissuade others from acting counter to our national interest", according to Commander Kevin Aandahl, of the Fifth Fleet. It will be the first time since the Iraq invasion of 2003 that America has had two carrier battle groups in the region. For its part, Iran has taken delivery of a TOR-M1 surface-to-air missile defence system from Russia. Ahmadinejad appears prepared to tough it out. He may be down, but he is not quite out. The middle classes in the cities are furious, but there are no elections for another two and a half years and, in the villages, where people are already self-sufficient and Ahmadinejad has splashed some cash around, he remains popular. "Ahmadinejad could be impeached or the supreme leader could replace him, but it would be a battle royal," said Taheri. "They could do it but, in practical terms, it would not be easy. He has a very strong power base."